Melvin Johnson, chairman of the DeKalb County Board of Education, said no one could have guessed that DeKalb would become the go-to location for immigrants and refugees.

“There was a trend that there would be fewer people here than (the number of schools) called for,” he said. “The main thing to focus on is the history of what we’re trying to fix. We have over a half billion dollars in needs, and you can’t fix it unless you’ve got the money.

“No one ignored it. It just ballooned at a faster rate.”

–Excerpt from November 2015 AJC Article

Here is the history of enrollment projections since 2011. Given the information below – especially with regard to the enrollment projections for the elementary schools – I’m not sure if I agree with Mr. Johnson’s claim.

Enrollment Projections 2012 to Currentcke pic.PNG

I extrapolated these numbers from the charts (linked below), which show enrollment projections for all DeKalb County schools (via the district’s Planning Department). Data from previous years was not available on the Planning Department site, but this table from the former DeKalb School Watch Blog archive shows that all the elementary schools were over-capacity during the 2010 school year.

I understand that projections are by no means definite. However, for the last 3 years, the projected numbers for the Cross Keys cluster have been quite close to actual enrollment numbers. According to the charts above, all of the elementary schools in the cluster have been over-capacity since 2012 (2010 if we count the chart that is no longer available on the school district’s website).

If we don’t pay attention to these enrollment projections more closely in the future, I’m afraid many other clusters are going to face the same crisis that the Cross Keys cluster is currently experiencing.

2014 Enrollment Projections

2013 Enrollment Projections

2012 Enrollment Projections